Friday, 10 October 2008

Trading in the Face of Recession - U Doin It Rong.

Ding! "OMG it's another TEdALOG!  Drop the feed, 42 so far this week and counting!  Sheesh the most opinionated tosser in WA's blogging scene."

Yes it's true, listeners and losteners.  I managed 42 posts in a week, and that may not have included them all because I really only added one blog to FeedBurner a few days ago. (And it wasn't all that graet an experience, ackshuwally.)

This would be #43, or #1 of a new week, not sure which to call it.  And it contains a burning, timely, incisive, insightful question which confuses the utter shyte out of me.  Here's the setup.  K-Rudd says we'll escape the recession because our resources market is still strong.  The world'd stock markets plunge, ours takes a bit of a dive, but it's alright because K-Rudd says we'll escape the recession because our resources market is still strong.

Then comes that nasty news that our largest market may be wanting to take a rain-check on a lot of that natural resource.  Now, what K-Rudd said, is no longer so certain...  "But hey!" say Portman, "They're asking us to reduce the amount we send.  But we stitched them up good, there's a firm contract they can't get out of, yay for our sales and legal teams!"

So now I wonder - if a country is feeling an impending recession (and who knows, China may well be in such a situation given the prodigious amounts of projects they have on the stove at any time) and says "uncle" that's a sign right there.  Maybe shoving the contract in their faces will keep income coming in now - but how much damage will it do the Chinese economy?  And will that add to the recession domino falls?   Cos if it does, then we're definitely going to hit our recession.  And some of our trading partners may not feel quite o enthusiastic and loving towards us once we've dunked them.

Just a thought...

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